Witnessing the Zero-Click Revolution: A Case Study-ish

The zero-click phenomenon has captured my attention lately. As generative AI becomes the default search experience, we're entering entirely new territory. To better understand this shift, I recently analyzed some data that tells a compelling story.

June 2025: A Critical Milestone

In late June 2025, Google launched AI Mode—a chatbot-like search interface—to all US users. While AI Overviews had been available since May 2024, AI Mode represented a fundamental shift in how users interact with search. The importance of this milestone cannot be overstated.

Comparing data from April 2025 (before) to August 2025 (after) revealed a striking finding:

• Google search impressions: up 67%

• Organic site visits: down 9%

How could this be? And more importantly—is this good?

The Pre-Qualification Hypothesis

My working assumption was that increased SERP engagement via AI Mode would lead to better "pre-qualification" of organic traffic. If AI Mode and AI Overviews now handle the upper and mid-funnel "education and information" role that websites traditionally served, then site traffic should theoretically arrive more ready to make lower funnel purchasing decisions.

Could the increased impressions paired with lower site traffic confirm this? Let's break down what the data reveals.

The Impression Distribution Story

The increased impressions weren't evenly distributed with a strong skew toward "hidden" impressions (these "hidden" impressions represent anonymized queries most likely influenced by generative AI experiences like AI Mode.):

• Branded impressions: down 7%

• Unbranded impressions: up 44%

• "Hidden" impressions: up 110%

This pattern seemed to confirm that the zero-click experience was indeed taking effect, with AI-Mode presumably fulfilling that upper and mid-funnel role. The decrease in branded impressions aligned well with the decrease in organic site traffic. But did this mean traffic quality improved and zero-click delivered a net benefit?

The Mixed Signals

This is where the picture became less clear:

• Organic traffic: sessions and conversions down 9% was not unexpected

• Organic + Direct traffic: sessions and conversions down 22% was a more than expected

• Onsite engagement rate: unchanged was not expected 

• Average session engagement time: up 22% was expected

• Non-linear relationships: a weak positive correlation was less than expected between "hidden" impressions and total conversions (onsite and off)

First Blush Findings Are Not Great

Honestly, it’s not a good sign. Early indicators lean cautious to negative. As an analyst, my first instinct is: "We need more data!" We're still in the early days of this shift—AI Mode just launched in late June 2025, so these are very early signals on slow moving trends.

Over time, we'll need to monitor whether AI Mode and AI Overviews can successfully handle the upper and mid-funnel roles. I would look for success manifesting in two important ways:

• Improved conversion rates on owned properties as they evolve into dedicated lower-funnel destinations

• Stronger non-linear relationships between bottom-of-funnel conversions and top-of-funnel AI impressions.

What You Can Do

1. Optimize for AI. Claiming your place in these new touchpoints is more important than ever. Your content needs to be structured and positioned to feed AI systems effectively, whether that's AI Overviews or AI Mode.

2. Evolve Your Strategy. Recognize AI's place in your customer journeys and marketing funnels. Treat it like a new platform alongside social media, apps, and other channels. Understand that users may be getting their initial information from AI-powered search before ever reaching your site.

3. Watch the Data Closely. This is a critical learning period. Understanding how generative AI experiences like AI Mode impact your pipeline is essential—and it will be different for every business. The better you understand these patterns, the more competitive advantage you can build.

Datacraft can help you stay competitive by understanding how your customer experience is changing and what you need to do about it.